There are three Capital One Cup ties on Wednesday and, to the punter with no prior involvement, the game at The Britannia offers the best punting opportunities.
Southampton are the team du jour and just 5/4 to win at what has typically been a fortress. Indeed, Stoke to win a home game at 12/5 is a rare thing indeed and comes with temptation.
However, followers of our antepost preview will be on Southampton in the outright market and at this stage that's where our interest in this game must end. Saints aren't a backable price, but we've every hope they can advance.
Stoke are a threat, though. They're back to normality at home now having earlier lost to Leicester, with one-goal verdicts over Newcastle and Swansea very much in keeping with what we've come to expect from them.
That they were also able to keep within a goal of Southampton away from home in the league on Saturday further strengthens the belief that they're good value here and if you're not carrying an antepost investment my advice is to chance them at the odds.
Mark Hughes named a strong side to win at Sunderland in the third round, as he had for the visit of Portsmouth in round two, and it's just possible that Ronald Koeman is more creative with his team selection.
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Like Stoke, Newcastle have steadied the ship of late and that augurs well for their trip to the Etihad Stadium to face a wounded Manchester City.
Manuel Pellegrini's side inexplicably blew a two-goal lead in Russia last week before deservedly losing at West Ham and they've got the distraction of a Manchester derby on the horizon, all of which means that an upset is perhaps not as out of the question as quotes of 10/1 about an away win imply.
That being said, there were many who were ruefully shaking their heads as Sheffield Wednesday held the Premier League champions at half-time here in round three, after which came no fewer than seven second-half goals in the sort of devastating spell that would do for Newcastle were it to arrive.
It's tricky, no doubt, as the visitors just aren't the sort of side I want to rely on to make things difficult even on the back of a pair of morale-boosting wins including at Spurs on Sunday.
To me, they look like a bunch who will roll over all too quickly when the going gets tough and it's telling that they've lost 4-0 on each of their last two trips to the Etihad. Something similar wouldn't surprise and 4/5 about City -1 is fair.
Finally, Tottenham host Brighton and here's where a sporting bet can be found - both teams to score in a home win at upwards of 2/1.
Spurs will get there under Mauricio Pochettino but for now they're vulnerable, I just don't think Brighton are equipped to beat them and anything but a home win would come as a mighty surprise.
However, we saw on Sunday that the hosts can't be relied upon to keep a clean sheet at present and that was again evident in the previous round, when Nottingham Forest took the lead before eventually losing 3-1.
Brighton's last 10 goals have come from 10 different players so they carry an all-round threat and have found the net in each of their last five games. They scored twice against Arsenal a couple of seasons back and also found the net against Hull last season, so I fancy they'll be ready to contribute.
Elsewhere, Harry Kane has played in five non-Premier League games this season and has six goals to his name so he's probably a decent bet at evens to find the net again, while at 7/2 he's also the most logical first goalscorer option.
For us, it's a night where success will depend on Southampton's progress but for the one-off punter, the advice would be Stoke, and Spurs to win without impressing.